A significant proportion of the developing world finds itself in a more precarious economic position than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, with global growth proving insufficient to foster poverty reduction and job creation, according to recent analyses. The World Bank has highlighted that a stark quarter of these nations experienced a contraction in average incomes between 2019 and 2025, a period marred by a cascade of negative economic shocks. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, has borne a disproportionate burden, with countries like Botswana, Namibia, the Central African Republic, Chad, Mozambique, South Africa, and Nigeria facing protracted recovery challenges.
The overarching narrative of global economic performance is one of deceleration. Projections indicate that growth in emerging market and developing economies will likely taper from an anticipated 4.2% in 2025 to 4% in 2026. This sluggish pace is a far cry from what is needed to lift populations out of extreme poverty and generate sufficient employment opportunities. While the global economy is forecast to expand by a modest 2.7% in 2025, this rate is expected to ease slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before a potential return to 2.7% in 2027, a trend that offers little immediate solace for the most vulnerable economies.
In stark contrast to the prevailing economic headwinds faced by many developing nations, China has reported a record-breaking trade surplus for the full year 2025, reaching an impressive $1.189 trillion. This robust performance, driven by a surge in outbound shipments that grew by 6.6% year-on-year in December 2025 – significantly exceeding economists' expectations – and a corresponding 5.7% increase in imports, underscores China's potent role in global commerce. This export-led strategy is a deliberate manoeuvre by Beijing to counterbalance the debilitating effects of a protracted property market slump and subdued domestic consumer demand.
However, this economic divergence is not without its geopolitical implications. The United States, which itself is projected to see growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, alongside a euro area economy anticipated to grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, is increasingly viewing China's manufacturing prowess with apprehension. Policies, potentially including tariffs, are being considered under a hypothetical Trump administration aimed at curbing China's export dominance. In response, Chinese firms are proactively seeking to broaden their export destinations, diversifying into markets across South-east Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This strategic pivot is a direct effort to mitigate the impact of potential trade restrictions from major Western economies and to secure alternative avenues for their products.
The fundamental assertion from Chinese customs authorities, as articulated by Vice-Minister Wang Jun, remains that "the fundamentals for China’s foreign trade remain solid." Nevertheless, the widening trade surplus and the strategic diversification by Chinese companies raise pertinent questions about global trade equilibrium and the potential for overcapacity to distort international markets. For economies already struggling to regain their footing post-pandemic, the shifting tides of global trade, coupled with internal vulnerabilities, present a complex and challenging outlook for the coming years. The impact of these trends on global poverty levels and the creation of much-needed employment in developing countries remains a paramount concern for international institutions and policymakers alike.