BRUSSELS – A significant impasse has emerged within the European Union's enlargement agenda, with Hungary's outright rejection of EU Council Conclusions on the matter threatening to derail crucial progress for candidate countries, including Ukraine. The move, which saw Budapest impose a sweeping veto on all references to Ukraine and other aspirant nations, has ignited a fierce debate among member states and underscored deep-seated divisions regarding the bloc's future trajectory.
The obstruction occurred at a General Affairs Council meeting on December 16th, where Hungary, under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, adopted a stance described by some officials as "vertically negative" towards Ukraine's accession prospects. Budapest’s position has been declared final and unalterable, leaving the incoming Cypriot Presidency of the Council of the EU with the unenviable task of navigating this complex diplomatic quagmire.
Germany, a key player in EU deliberations, has responded with considerable disquiet. Officials in Berlin have reportedly mooted the imposition of "economic consequences" for Hungary, a measure that could involve diminishing its rights within the Union and, crucially, linking access to EU funding, particularly Cohesion Policy funds, to Budapest's adherence to bloc-wide principles. This proposed punitive approach highlights the gravity with which Germany views Hungary's actions, arguing that such vetoes fundamentally undermine the EU's enlargement policy and risk projecting an image of disunity to external actors, including Russia, concerning Ukraine's European aspirations.
Beyond the immediate geopolitical ramifications, Hungary's obstruction also serves to exacerbate existing internal EU tensions. The country, alongside Poland, faces its own internal political hurdles and public sentiment regarding deeper integration, notably the adoption of the euro. In Hungary, despite a Eurobarometer survey from October to November indicating 72% public support for the single currency, constitutional provisions enshrine the forint as the national currency, a significant impediment to euro adoption. Furthermore, Hungary's elevated debt levels, the highest as a proportion of economic output outside the euro zone, and its struggle to curb the EU's largest budget deficit present substantial financial obstacles.
Similarly, in Poland, public enthusiasm for the euro appears to have waned considerably. A recent survey revealed only 45% public support for adopting the single currency. High inflation and the implementation of austerity measures have seemingly relegated the euro debate from public discourse. The Polish Finance Minister has explicitly stated that Warsaw is not actively pursuing euro adoption, expressing contentment with its current national currency.
The implications of these internal divisions and Hungary's assertive veto power are far-reaching. For member states like Lithuania, the repeated obstructionism from Hungary has led to calls for linking EU funding directly to compliance with rule-of-law standards, a sentiment echoed by Latvia and Estonia, who perceive Hungary's persistent use of its leverage as increasingly counterproductive and detrimental to the bloc's decision-making capacity. The "Hungary issue" is proving to be a persistent challenge for both the European Council and the European Commission, demanding astute diplomatic maneuvering and a potential recalibration of intergovernmental relations. As the EU contemplates further expansion, these internal fault lines, coupled with the economic prerequisites for euro adoption, suggest that the deepening of the euro zone itself may face protracted delays in the foreseeable future.