**Riyadh, Riyadh –** The long-standing alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a cornerstone of regional stability for years, is exhibiting significant fissures over the protracted conflict in Yemen. In recent weeks, tensions have demonstrably escalated, with Riyadh accusing Abu Dhabi of actions that directly imperil Saudi national security, a stark indication that the future governance of Yemen is now a contentious point of contention between the two Gulf powerhouses.
The crux of the burgeoning dispute appears to lie in divergent visions for Yemen's political trajectory, particularly concerning the aspirations of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The UAE has historically lent considerable support to the STC, a secessionist movement advocating for the restoration of an independent South Yemen, a state that existed prior to the nation's unification in 1990. This backing has been interpreted by Saudi Arabia as a direct challenge to its own security interests, especially after the STC consolidated control over territories proximate to the Saudi border. The UAE's involvement in Yemen, which commenced with the initial Saudi-led intervention against Houthi rebels in 2015, has seemingly evolved into a strategic divergence, with Abu Dhabi pursuing its own long-term commercial and geopolitical objectives in the strategically vital Horn of Africa and southern Yemen.
The situation reached a critical juncture when Saudi forces reportedly conducted an airstrike on vehicles at the Yemeni port of Mukalla. Riyadh asserted that these vehicles were destined for the STC and had originated from an Emirati port, framing the incident as a direct consequence of the UAE's intransigence. This military action followed an ultimatum issued by Saudi Arabia, demanding the UAE's withdrawal from specific areas within southern Yemen. In response, the UAE has indeed begun to disengage from certain territories, a move that underscores the gravity of the Saudi demands and the precariousness of the alliance.
This internal discord within the anti-Houthi coalition presents a deeply concerning prospect for Yemen's already devastated populace. The potential for the STC to unilaterally declare an independent southern state, emboldened by Emirati support, could plunge southern Yemen into renewed internal conflict, further fragmenting an already fractured nation. The Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), Yemen's internationally recognised government, which itself includes STC representation since 2019, now finds itself caught in the crossfire of this escalating inter-state rivalry.
Beyond Yemen's borders, the Saudi-UAE friction has the potential to reverberate across other volatile regions. Analysts warn that the dispute could spill over into ongoing conflicts and geopolitical contests in locations such as Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where both Saudi Arabia and the UAE vie for influence. What was once a united front against the Houthi insurgency is increasingly morphing into a theatre for broader regional competition, encompassing control over vital shipping lanes and access to lucrative commercial opportunities. The kingdom's official statement unequivocally articulated its position: "The kingdom stresses that any threat to its national security is a red line, and the kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary steps and measures to confront and neutralise any such threat." This firm stance signals Riyadh's unwavering determination to safeguard its interests, even at the potential cost of further destabilising an already precarious Yemeni landscape and straining a crucial regional partnership.