**BEIJING** – China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) commenced a large-scale series of live-fire military exercises encircling Taiwan on Monday, a move widely interpreted as a forceful demonstration of Beijing’s resolve to assert its territorial claims over the self-governing island. The surprise operation, dubbed "Justice Mission 2025," commenced with little prior warning and is designed to simulate a comprehensive blockade of Taiwan’s key maritime arteries and air routes, signalling a significant escalation in regional geopolitical tensions.
The drills, which entered their second day on Tuesday, involve an extensive deployment of PLA assets, including a substantial number of combat aircraft, naval vessels, and long-range missiles. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence reported an unprecedented surge in aerial incursions, with 130 warplanes detected within a 24-hour period, alongside 28 ships, including amphibious assault vessels. These exercises are explicitly aimed at testing the PLA’s capacity to conduct coordinated strikes, interdict maritime traffic, and crucially, to repel any potential international intervention. Chinese officials have unequivocally stated that the drills serve as a stark admonition to both "Taiwanese independence" secessionist elements and any external powers perceived as meddling in what Beijing considers an internal affair.
The timing of "Justice Mission 2025" is particularly noteworthy, occurring in the wake of a recent US government decision to approve an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan. This long-standing US commitment to Taiwan's defence, coupled with rhetoric from Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te vowing to bolster the island's military capabilities, has evidently provoked a forceful response from Beijing. Furthermore, a recent diplomatic spat with Japan, following remarks by its Prime Minister suggesting potential military involvement should China attack Taiwan, has seemingly prompted Beijing to underscore its preparedness to confront perceived external interference.
The operational scope of the exercises is extensive. Missiles were launched from the Chinese mainland, some of which reportedly landed within Taiwan’s 24-nautical mile contiguous zone, a clear provocation. At least 13 Chinese naval vessels were observed operating within Taiwan’s restricted waters, while amphibious assault ships were positioned a considerable distance off the island’s southern coast. The PLA's eastern theatre command spokesperson, Colonel Shi Yi, articulated the drills' purpose as a "stern warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces." Similarly, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian asserted that "any sinister schemes to obstruct China’s reunification are doomed to fail."
These exercises are not occurring in a vacuum. Intelligence assessments from several years ago suggest that China's leadership under Xi Jinping aims to possess the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027. While the immediate impact on Taiwan has been one of heightened alert and a significant military response, the broader geopolitical ramifications are substantial. The United States, a principal security partner of Taiwan, is closely monitoring the situation. Although former President Donald Trump, who is anticipated to visit Beijing for formal discussions next year, has publicly expressed a lack of concern, the PLA’s message to Washington and its allies is clear: Beijing intends to deter any actions that might be interpreted as supporting Taiwan's de facto independence. China’s defence ministry has explicitly urged "relevant countries" to "abandon illusions of using Taiwan to contain China," a pointed reference to the US. The drills represent a calculated strategy by Beijing to intimidate Taiwan and to signal its increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.