**Belem, Brazil** – As delegates convene for the COP30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, a palpable sense of disillusionment pervades the air, with expectations for significant breakthroughs significantly dampened. The confluence of a decelerating global energy transition, a recalibration of business priorities towards energy security and affordability, and a concerted effort by conservative factions to erode fundamental rights paints a grim tableau for immediate climate action and broader human welfare.
The United States, under the administration of President Trump, has signaled a continued departure from its previous climate commitments, notably through its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. This stance, coupled with the broader global trend of energy demand growth necessitating continued reliance on fossil fuels, has fundamentally altered the discourse surrounding decarbonisation. The anticipated shift away from polluting energy sources is progressing at a pace far slower than initially envisioned, prompting a pragmatic, albeit controversial, re-evaluation of the feasibility of achieving net-zero emissions by the 2050 target. Consequently, the focus of COP30 is likely to gravitate from the ambitious 1.5°C global warming threshold towards a more attainable, yet still precarious, goal of limiting warming to "well below 2°C".
This shift in global priorities is mirrored at the national level. Spain, for instance, has acknowledged the escalating threat of climate change, particularly extreme weather events. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on Wednesday in Madrid a significant initiative to establish a national network of climate shelters within public buildings before next summer. This proactive measure, bolstered by €20 million allocated for flood and fire prevention in vulnerable small towns, underscores a pragmatic approach to immediate human welfare in the face of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves. Sanchez himself articulated the stark reality, stating, "Devastating droughts and heatwaves are no longer rare. Some summers, it's not separate waves we face, but one long heatwave stretching from June through August. This is now the new normal." Regional governments in Catalonia and the Basque Country, along with officials in Barcelona, have already pioneered similar shelter networks, providing essential air-conditioned spaces with free water and seating during periods of extreme heat.
However, this focus on adaptation and "energy pragmatism" is occurring against a backdrop of a more insidious global trend: the systematic undermining of human rights and healthcare, particularly sexual and reproductive health. Ultra-conservative groups, such as Family Watch International and Alliance Defending Freedom, are actively engaged in lobbying governments and supporting litigation to roll back progress on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and comprehensive sexuality education. The impact of this anti-rights movement, often funded by well-resourced US-based Christian organizations, is being felt across continents, creating significant gaps in essential services, especially for women and girls. The freeze on USAID funding, for example, has left numerous organizations struggling to operate.
Nowhere is this tension between demographic policy and rights more starkly illustrated than in China. Facing a precipitous decline in its birthrate, with figures in 2024 standing at a mere 6.77 per 1,000 people, the Chinese government has embarked on a series of policies aimed at encouraging childbirth. These include expanding its national healthcare insurance to cover childbirth expenses, introducing nationwide childcare subsidies, and even offering IVF discounts and cash incentives. Yet, in a move that has sparked widespread bewilderment and criticism, China has also imposed a 13% Value Added Tax (VAT) on contraceptives, a policy that has drawn sharp commentary online, with one Weibo user lamenting, "What is wrong with modern society? They are truly going to extreme lengths just to make us have children." This juxtaposition of pronatalist policies with fiscal measures that could inadvertently hinder access to family planning highlights the complex and often contradictory landscape of global governance in the 21st century. The ultimate impact of these divergent priorities – a tempered approach to climate action and an aggressive defence of traditional social structures – remains to be seen, but the current trajectory suggests a challenging road ahead.