While the European Union grapples with a recent uptick in greenhouse gas emissions, a stark divergence in climate policy is unfolding across the Atlantic. Recent data from Eurostat reveals that in the third quarter of 2025, the bloc experienced a 1.1% increase in seasonally adjusted greenhouse gas emissions, amounting to 828 million tonnes of CO2-equivalents, a concerning trend following a period of reduction. This rise, however, masks significant disparities within member states, with Cyprus leading the charge in emission mitigation, ranking third across the EU for its reduction efforts.
The broader EU context shows a 0.4% growth in GDP during the same quarter, suggesting economic expansion is not entirely decoupled from environmental impact. Notably, household emissions saw a substantial 3.6% escalation, and manufacturing contributed a 1.4% rise, though these were partially offset by a 0.8% decrease in emissions from the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning sectors. Among individual nations, Estonia, Slovenia, and Cyprus distinguished themselves by registering the most pronounced reductions in greenhouse gas output.
In stark contrast, the United States is undergoing a significant policy volte-face that threatens to undermine global efforts towards ‘net zero’ emissions. The Trump administration's decision to rescind the "endangerment finding" – the crucial 2009 report by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that legally classified greenhouse gases as pollutants – represents a profound departure from established climate science and policy. This move, stemming from a 2007 Supreme Court ruling that affirmed the EPA's responsibility to regulate these emissions, effectively dismantles a foundational pillar for controlling industrial pollution. Environmental advocacy groups, such as the Environmental Defense Fund, project that this reversal could lead to an additional 7.5 to 18 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere by 2055, potentially costing trillions of dollars.
The ramifications of this US policy shift extend far beyond its borders. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a sobering assessment of the global energy landscape, highlighting that escalating energy demand is outpacing the expansion of renewable energy sources. This disparity necessitates a continued reliance on fossil fuels to bridge the gap, a phenomenon experts are describing less as an "energy transition" and more as an "energy addition" or "energy reset." While the IEA anticipates a significant surge in global renewable capacity – projected to more than double in the next five years, driven predominantly by solar photovoltaic technology – challenges remain. Supply chain constraints and the imperative to modernise and expand electricity grids to accommodate the burgeoning role of renewables are critical hurdles that require immediate attention.
The US withdrawal from international climate frameworks, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under the previous administration, has demonstrably hampered collective climate action and rendered the nation incapable of meeting its treaty obligations concerning emissions reporting and financial contributions. Although the current administration has signaled a renewed commitment to climate goals, the legacy of these reversals casts a long shadow, potentially delaying the achievement of ‘net zero’ targets by 2050. The legal challenges anticipated against the endangerment finding reversal in the US underscore the contentious nature of climate policy and the enduring struggle to reconcile economic imperatives with environmental stewardship. As the world navigates this complex terrain, the divergence in approaches between regions like the EU and the US underscores the urgent need for robust, consistent, and globally coordinated climate action.