**NICOSIA, CYPRUS** – A significant recalibration of perceived defence alliances is underway in Cyprus, with newly released polling data indicating a dramatic surge in the public’s confidence in Israel as its foremost security partner. The findings, projected to crystallise by early 2026, signal a notable decline in Greece’s long-standing position as Cyprus’ primary defence guarantor, whilst simultaneously highlighting a growing reliance on both the United States and Russia amidst escalating geopolitical instability in the Eastern Mediterranean and broader Middle East.
The CYBC opinion poll, the results of which were recently unveiled, paints a compelling picture of shifting strategic priorities. By January 2026, a substantial 41% of Cypriot respondents anticipate looking to Israel for defence support, a stark contrast to the mere 9.5% who felt similarly in May 2024. Conversely, Greece’s perceived role as the island’s principal security anchor has diminished considerably, dropping from 45% in May 2024 to an anticipated 27% by early 2026. This recalibration underscores a burgeoning trilateral relationship between Cyprus, Greece, and Israel, which a strong majority of Cypriots now view as intrinsically beneficial to the island's national interests, suggesting a pragmatic approach to regional security challenges.
Beyond the immediate bilateral shifts, the survey also points to an enhanced appreciation for the strategic importance of global powers. Both the United States and Russia have seen their perceived influence as defence partners grow. Washington’s standing is projected to rise to 16.5% by January 2026, an increase from 11% in May 2024, while Moscow’s perceived relevance has effectively doubled, climbing to 14% from 7%. In parallel, the influence of the European Union and France as anchors of Cypriot defence appears to be waning, with support for the former declining to 13.5% from 19%, and for the latter, a slight drop to 12% from 14%. Even the United Kingdom, despite a recent high-profile military deployment, registers low confidence, with its perceived importance falling to 1.5% from 2.5%. This data suggests a Cypriot public increasingly cognisant of the multifaceted security landscape and seeking robust, albeit diverse, partnerships.
This evolving strategic calculus is occurring against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions, particularly concerning Iran, which has prompted a tangible increase in military presence from key allies. In a demonstration of enhanced defensive capabilities and regional commitment, the United Kingdom recently deployed six F-35B Lightning stealth fighter jets to RAF Akrotiri on the island. Operating under the purview of the Royal Air Force, these advanced aircraft, supported by Voyager tanker aircraft for aerial refuelling, are tasked with bolstering defensive coverage and vigilant airspace monitoring around the strategic base. This deployment signifies a proactive stance by the UK in reinforcing its defensive posture within a volatile geopolitical environment, offering a degree of reassurance to its regional partners.
The implications of these shifts are manifold. Israel's ascendancy in Cypriot public perception as the paramount defence ally suggests a growing recognition of its advanced military capabilities and its strategic alignment with Cyprus and Greece in the face of shared regional threats. The increased reliance on non-European powers like the US and Russia, while potentially complex, reflects a pragmatic assessment of where security assurances can be most effectively sourced. As Cyprus navigates an increasingly intricate geopolitical terrain, its evolving defence alliances underscore a strategic imperative to adapt and fortify its security framework through diversified and robust partnerships. The island's strategic location, coupled with persistent regional uncertainties, necessitates a dynamic approach to national defence, one that is clearly being embraced by its populace.