NICOSIA – The island of Cyprus is grappling with a stark preview of its climatic future, as unseasonably warm and arid conditions persist deep into November, exacerbating a critical water shortage. Scientific data reveals a rapid, long-term trajectory of warming and drying that is fundamentally altering the island's environment, pushing its infrastructure and resources to the brink.
According to analyses by the Cyprus Institute's Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), the Mediterranean nation is overheating at an alarming rate of 0.4 to 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, a trend consistent since 1981. This acceleration is transforming seasonal norms. Comparative studies indicate that average temperatures in transitional months like March and November have risen by approximately two degrees Celsius in the first quarter of this century compared to the closing decades of the last. "From this year’s November we are getting a taste earlier than we expected of what was supposed to happen after the middle towards the end of the century," remarked Dr. Panos Hadjinicolaou, a professor at CARE-C. "To experience November like September."
The warming is compounded by a profound shift in precipitation patterns. Long-term meteorological records show a disturbing decline in average annual rainfall, dropping significantly from mid-20th century figures to current levels. This represents a loss of billions of tonnes of potential water for the island each year. Furthermore, the character of rainfall has changed. Kleanthis Nicolaides, former director of the Meteorological Service, notes a shift from widespread, beneficial showers to concentrated, violent events. "Instead of having mild rains, we have extreme rains with very large volumes of water, very local in nature over a short period of time," he observed. This pattern leads to destructive runoff rather than sustained aquifer replenishment.
The most immediate consequence is a severe water crisis. Reservoir levels have plummeted to a precarious 9.5% of capacity, a dramatic decrease from the previous year. Inflows since October have been the lowest in a decade. Yianna Economidou, a Senior Executive Engineer at the Water Development Department (WDD), has warned that without substantial rainfall, the nation's reserves could be exhausted by 2026. In response, the country is increasingly reliant on desalination, which now supplies roughly 70% of urban and suburban water needs. However, this solution is energy-intensive and costly, while domestic water consumption continues to rise annually.
Looking ahead, projections paint a challenging picture. Climate models suggest Cyprus could resemble the arid climate of Cairo by the middle of the century, with rainfall potentially decreasing by up to 20% compared to pre-industrial levels. Concurrently, demand for cooling is forecast to skyrocket as heatwaves become more frequent and intense, extending well beyond the traditional summer months. The cumulative impact signals not merely a change in weather, but a fundamental restructuring of the island's ecological and hydrological balance, demanding urgent adaptation and sustained mitigation efforts on all fronts.