**Nicosia, Cyprus –** A recently unveiled pre-election poll has illuminated a dynamic and potentially transformative political landscape in Cyprus, just weeks before the nation heads to the polls for its parliamentary elections on May 24th. The survey, conducted by Rai consultants and broadcast by Alpha television on Thursday evening, suggests a notable consolidation of support for the nationalist party Elam, which appears to be narrowing the historical chasm separating it from the established political titans, Disy and Akel. The findings also highlight the burgeoning influence of newer political entities and a surprising dip in the fortunes of a long-standing major player.
The poll, which canvassed the intentions of 1,031 Cypriot citizens, provides a snapshot of public sentiment at a critical juncture. Traditionally, the political discourse in Cyprus has been dominated by the centre-right Disy and the left-wing Akel. However, this latest data indicates a significant uptick for Elam, which garnered 10.3% of intended votes, placing it just 3.3 percentage points behind Akel's 13.6%. Disy, meanwhile, leads the pack with 14.3%, but the margin between the top three is considerably tighter than in previous electoral cycles, signalling a potential recalibration of the established order.
Beyond the leading contenders, the poll also underscores the growing appeal of parties forged by prominent figures in recent times. Alma, a party founded by Odysseas Michaelides, has registered a respectable 6.6% support, while Fidias Panayiotou's Direct Democracy movement is not far behind, polling at 6.3%. These figures suggest that a segment of the electorate is actively seeking alternatives to the traditional political establishment, potentially drawn to the fresh platforms offered by these newer formations.
Conversely, the results present a less optimistic picture for Diko, a party that has historically occupied a significant position in Cypriot politics. With 4.9% of the vote, its current standing appears to be considerably lower than in many past elections, raising questions about its ability to retain its traditional influence in the upcoming parliamentary assembly, which will comprise 56 seats. Other parties, including Volt (2.5%), Dipa (1.0%), Edek (0.9%), and the Hunters’ Movement (0.8%), are also featured in the poll, though their support levels indicate they are currently polling below the threshold for significant parliamentary representation. Smaller parties such as the Ecologists’ Movement (0.6%), the Animal Party (0.4%), and Christos Clerides’ Democratic Change (0.1%) are also included in the survey.
Crucially, the poll also offers insight into voter behaviour beyond specific party preferences. A substantial 21.9% of respondents remain undecided, a figure that could prove decisive in the final weeks of the campaign. Furthermore, a notable 6.4% indicated an intention not to vote, while 2.4% are considering spoiling their ballot or leaving it blank. A further 6.3% declined to disclose their intentions, adding another layer of complexity to predicting the final outcome.
The implications of these findings are far-reaching. The apparent rise of Elam, a party known for its hardline nationalist stance, could signal a shift in the ideological undercurrents of Cypriot society. The strong showing of newer parties like Alma and Direct Democracy suggests a potential fragmentation of the political landscape, challenging the long-standing dominance of the established parties. As the May 24th election looms, these poll results serve as a critical barometer, offering valuable insights into the evolving allegiances and potential composition of Cyprus's next parliament. The coming weeks will undoubtedly witness intensified campaigning as parties vie to sway the significant bloc of undecided voters and solidify their positions.