As the global financial landscape braces for 2026, a significant recalibration is underway, marked by a burgeoning "Sell America" sentiment and a critical reappraisal of Artificial Intelligence's market dominance. Experts are anticipating increased volatility in US equity benchmarks and a potential weakening of the US dollar, as investors pivot towards traditional safe havens like precious metals. This seismic shift is being driven by a confluence of legal, monetary, and geopolitical pressures that are challenging the long-held confidence in American assets.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, articulates a palpable change in investor behaviour. "Investors are adjusting portfolios because the institutional framework that underpins confidence in US assets has encountered multiple, simultaneous stress points," he observed. "It’s observable in market behaviour, from metals to currency to equities." This sentiment is amplified by recent legal escalations involving the Federal Reserve. Subpoenas have reportedly been issued by the Department of Justice, casting a shadow over the institution and its Chair, Jerome Powell, with implications for monetary policy and market stability. The rest of the current year is expected to solidify this "Sell America" trade, setting a decisive tone for the coming year.
Concurrently, the AI sector, which has been the primary engine of market growth for the past two years, is facing a crucial juncture. The era of unbridled optimism is giving way to a demand for tangible results. "AI has been the engine of markets for two years, but the phase of unchecked optimism is giving way to a sharper focus on resilience," Green stated. Investors are now scrutinizing AI companies with a more discerning eye, seeking demonstrable earnings growth and a clear conversion of substantial infrastructure investments into immediate financial returns. This will likely lead to a divergent performance among tech titans such as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft. Those that can convincingly showcase profitability stemming from their AI initiatives are poised to lead the next market phase, while others reliant on future promises may face significant valuation adjustments.
Adding another layer of complexity to the global AI dynamic, the Trump administration's decision to permit Nvidia's export of H200 AI chips to approved customers in China represents a significant geopolitical and economic manoeuvre. This move is intended to reshape the competitive landscape and potentially accelerate the dissemination of advanced AI capabilities worldwide. While aimed at altering competitive dynamics, it also opens avenues for Chinese developers to build more sophisticated AI services, potentially reducing development timelines and iteration costs for large-scale model training and deployment. This decision, made against the backdrop of Nvidia's critical earnings report on Wednesday, underscores the intricate interplay between technological advancement, international relations, and market strategy.
In this evolving environment, the market is anticipating a recalibration of AI and tech valuations. Companies that can prove their AI investments are not merely aspirational but are generating concrete revenue streams will be rewarded. Conversely, those that cannot demonstrate a clear path to profitability may find their sky-high valuations increasingly untenable. The coming weeks will be pivotal in shaping the narrative for AI's role in the 2026 market, as investors demand evidence over speculation, and the global economic order navigates new technological frontiers and political realities.