A resurgent and increasingly audacious insurgency in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province has precipitated a catastrophic surge in civilian displacement, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee their homes in recent months. The escalating violence, perpetrated by militants affiliated with the Islamic State, has overwhelmed humanitarian resources and drawn stark comparisons to the devastating Palma attack of March 2021, which saw foreign workers on a vital liquefied natural gas project caught in the crossfire.
Since the Islamic State-Mozambique group first launched its campaign of terror in October 2017, the conflict has metastasised, creating a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled) project indicates a particularly grim recent trajectory. Over 300,000 individuals have been uprooted from their communities since July alone, with the month of November witnessing an alarming exodus of over 100,000 people. By the close of November, the cumulative number of displaced persons had surpassed 350,000, a precipitous increase from the approximately 240,000 recorded a year prior, highlighting the intensified nature of the conflict. The International Organization for Migration estimates that over one million people have been displaced overall, many of whom have been forced to relocate multiple times, exacerbating their vulnerability.
The recent expansion of militant activity has seen them push further south than ever before, reaching as far as Nampula province. This geographical broadening of the conflict zone is attributed, in part, to the operational tempo of Mozambican and Rwandan forces. However, according to Tomás Queface, a researcher for Acled, the effectiveness of these counter-insurgency efforts may be waning. "The Rwandans are not doing patrols like they used to do," Queface observed, suggesting a potential shift in strategy or capacity. This perceived reduction in overt security presence may have emboldened the insurgents, whom Queface described as "very audacious."
The international community's response to the escalating crisis in Mozambique appears to be faltering, overshadowed by concurrent global emergencies. The wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan are understandably commanding significant international attention and diverting much-needed humanitarian and financial aid away from the protracted conflict in northern Mozambique. This diminished foreign assistance places an immense strain on already beleaguered local authorities and aid organisations struggling to provide essential services to the swelling ranks of displaced populations.
Compounding the humanitarian catastrophe is the perception among observers that Mozambican authorities have yet to articulate a cohesive and effective strategy to definitively quell the insurgency. The persistent violence, coupled with the displacement of vast swathes of the population and the significant loss of life – over 600 people perished during the Palma assault alone – underscores the profound and enduring impact of this unresolved conflict on the nation's stability and its people's well-being. The continuing displacement and the encroaching reach of the militants paint a bleak picture for the immediate future of Cabo Delgado and its inhabitants.