The global artificial intelligence sector is currently experiencing a significant transformation, driven by crucial decisions regarding advanced chip exports and heightened investor scrutiny of AI's actual economic benefits. Following a period where AI demonstrably fueled market growth, a phase of reassessment has now commenced. This necessitates a re-evaluation of how rapidly this groundbreaking technology can consistently generate reliable profits. This evolution is not limited to financial markets; it is also fundamentally altering the job market in ways that diverge from earlier widespread concerns about mass unemployment.
A pivotal development this week, coinciding with Nvidia's anticipated earnings report, involves the reported authorization for exporting advanced H200 AI chips to select Chinese companies. Experts believe this decision will substantially influence the global dissemination and advancement of AI capabilities. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, stated that this development "matters for investors far beyond the chipmakers themselves," suggesting a potential acceleration of the worldwide AI competition and a more direct challenge to leading AI firms. For months, Chinese developers have diligently worked to create sophisticated AI services, often overcoming hardware constraints through innovative algorithms and vast datasets. Access to more powerful chips could significantly expedite their progress and reduce development expenses.
This announcement arrives as investors are shifting from unreserved optimism to a more pragmatic assessment of AI's financial implications. The initial market exuberance that boosted indices and tech stocks has begun to diminish, replaced by a demand for concrete evidence that substantial AI infrastructure investments are yielding measurable and sustainable profits. Varied financial outcomes from major technology corporations have underscored this discrepancy, with some struggling to convert AI-related expenditures into robust returns. This approaching "reckoning," expected to shape investment strategies for 2026, indicates a period where the genuine economic viability of AI initiatives will be rigorously examined.
Intriguingly, amidst these concerns about corporate profitability, research from Vanguard offers a different perspective on the labour market. A survey analyzing 140 job roles highly susceptible to AI automation has revealed an unexpected trend: these occupations are currently experiencing accelerated employment and wage growth. Between mid-2023 and mid-2025, jobs with high AI exposure saw employment rise by 1.7%, a notable increase compared to the 1% observed in pre-pandemic periods. Similarly, average real pay in these roles grew by 3.8% post-pandemic, starkly contrasting with a minimal 0.1% growth before the global health crisis.
Adam Sickling, an economist at Vanguard, commented, "At a high level, we don’t see any evidence that occupations exposed to AI are experiencing lower employment." This counterintuitive outcome is partly attributed to the current limitations of AI systems. Despite their advancements, AI remains prone to errors, often termed "hallucinations," and is not yet sufficiently dependable to entirely replace human workers. The ongoing need for human oversight, error correction, and strategic implementation means that roles requiring these skills are, for now, in higher demand and command greater compensation. However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with the potential for future AI evolution to disrupt specific job functions as systems become more capable and reliable. The coming weeks will be critical in defining the broader economic narrative surrounding AI, determining whether its impact will primarily involve financial scrutiny or continued job market expansion.