As delegates gather in Belem, Brazil, for the COP30 climate conference, a pervasive sense of disappointment has settled over the proceedings, significantly tempering expectations for major breakthroughs. The current global landscape, characterized by a slowing energy transition, a renewed focus on energy security and affordability by businesses, and concerted efforts by conservative groups to diminish fundamental rights, presents a challenging outlook for immediate climate action and overall human well-being.
The United States, under former President Trump's administration, had previously signaled a departure from its climate commitments, notably by withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. This stance, combined with growing global energy demand, necessitates continued reliance on fossil fuels, fundamentally altering discussions on decarbonisation. The anticipated shift away from polluting energy sources is progressing far slower than initially projected, prompting a pragmatic, though controversial, reassessment of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Consequently, COP30's focus will likely shift from the ambitious 1.5°C warming target to the more achievable, yet still precarious, goal of limiting warming to "well below 2°C".
This shift in global priorities is also evident at national levels. Spain, for example, has acknowledged the escalating threat of climate change, particularly extreme weather events. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez recently announced a significant initiative to establish a national network of climate shelters within public buildings before next summer. This proactive measure, supported by €20 million for flood and fire prevention in vulnerable small towns, demonstrates a practical approach to immediate human welfare amidst increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves. Sanchez himself highlighted the stark reality, stating, "Devastating droughts and heatwaves are no longer rare. This is now the new normal." Regional governments and city officials have already pioneered similar shelter networks, offering essential air-conditioned spaces with free water and seating during extreme heat periods.
However, this focus on adaptation and "energy pragmatism" occurs against a backdrop of a more insidious global trend: the systematic undermining of human rights and healthcare, especially sexual and reproductive health. Ultra-conservative groups are actively lobbying governments and supporting litigation to reverse progress on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and comprehensive sexuality education. The impact of this anti-rights movement, often funded by well-resourced US-based organizations, is creating significant gaps in essential services, particularly for women and girls.
Nowhere is this tension between demographic policy and rights more starkly illustrated than in China. Facing a precipitous decline in its birthrate, the Chinese government has implemented policies to encourage childbirth, including expanded healthcare insurance coverage for childbirth expenses and nationwide childcare subsidies. Yet, in a move that has sparked widespread bewilderment, China has also imposed a 13% Value Added Tax (VAT) on contraceptives. This juxtaposition of pronatalist policies with fiscal measures that could hinder family planning highlights the complex and often contradictory landscape of global governance. The ultimate impact of these divergent priorities remains to be seen, but the current trajectory suggests a challenging road ahead.