As the prolonged conflict with Russia extends towards its fourth year, a significant majority of Ukrainians steadfastly refuse to accept peace terms involving territorial concessions or severe military limitations. New polling data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) reveals a nation largely prepared for continued resistance, despite a noticeable decline in confidence regarding key Western allies.
The comprehensive survey, conducted in late November and mid-December, questioned 547 individuals within Ukrainian-controlled territories. Its findings underscore a deeply ingrained national sentiment that rejects any settlement compromising sovereignty, particularly concerning the Donbas region, or undermining defence capabilities without unambiguous, legally binding security assurances. An overwhelming 75% of respondents deemed a Russia-aligned peace proposal, potentially involving land surrender or army size restrictions, "entirely unacceptable" without such safeguards. This highlights a palpable apprehension that any compromise would merely invite future aggression.
While a robust 63% expressed readiness to prolong the fight, the poll also indicated a degree of pragmatism. A substantial 72% of Ukrainians indicated willingness to consider a peace agreement for a cessation of hostilities along current front lines, provided reciprocal compromises were included. This suggests an openness to de-escalation avenues, but only under conditions preserving national integrity and future safety. The bleak outlook for an imminent resolution is further emphasized by the fact that a mere 9% anticipate the war concluding by early 2026.
These findings emerge amidst mounting international pressure for a swift resolution, with figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump advocating for rapid peace settlements. Washington has reportedly encouraged Ukraine to explore negotiated endings. However, the KIIS poll points to a discernible decline in Ukrainian trust towards principal international partners. Confidence in Washington has plummeted from 41% to 21% within a year, while trust in NATO has decreased from 43% to 34% over the same period.
This erosion of trust is a critical factor, directly impacting the perceived viability of peace plans relying on external security commitments. Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, articulated this sentiment, stating that without unambiguous and binding guarantees, Ukrainians will not trust them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself acknowledged the complexities, suggesting Ukraine might reconsider NATO aspirations for concrete security guarantees.
The implications of this public opinion are significant, suggesting external pressures for concessions will face formidable internal resistance. Declining trust in Western assurances may complicate diplomatic efforts, potentially necessitating novel and robust security frameworks that can garner widespread Ukrainian endorsement. Ultimately, the surveyed populace appears to favour continued defence over a peace perceived as capitulation, underscoring Ukraine's enduring resilience.