Slovakia has issued a serious warning to Ukraine, stating that it will discontinue vital electricity exports unless Russian oil shipments through the critical Druzhba pipeline are restored by Monday. This significant escalation arises as Bratislava faces substantial disruptions to its energy imports, which it attributes to Ukraine's decision to halt Russian crude oil deliveries. This disagreement poses a risk of worsening already tense relations and could have broader implications for European energy security and continued aid to Ukraine.
The core of this dispute centres on the interruption of Russian oil flows, which began in late January after alleged damage to Ukrainian infrastructure from a Russian drone strike. For both Slovakia and neighbouring Hungary, the Druzhba pipeline is an essential route for Russian oil, a dependency that has unfortunately persisted despite wider European efforts to diversify away from Russian energy sources. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico publicly announced his intention to direct the state-owned company SEPS to suspend emergency electricity provisions to Ukraine unless oil transit is resumed. He declared this decision was a direct reaction to what he described as Ukraine's "malicious" actions.
Prime Minister Fico’s complaints go beyond the immediate oil supply issue. He also highlighted Ukraine’s earlier decision to stop Russian gas supplies after a five-year transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025. According to Slovakian assessments, this action has resulted in financial losses estimated at around €500 million annually for the country. Furthermore, Fico expressed his disapproval of Ukraine's position regarding a substantial €90 billion EU military loan package intended for Kyiv. He controversially suggested that Ukraine’s exclusion of Slovakia from this initiative was "absolutely correct," implying a perceived lack of mutual support from Kyiv.
The potential impact of Slovakia withdrawing its electricity supplies could be considerable for Ukraine. Energy sector analysts indicate that Slovakia has been a significant supplier, providing 18% of Ukraine's electricity imports during the previous month. This reliance underscores Ukraine's vulnerability, especially in light of ongoing Russian attacks that have repeatedly targeted its energy infrastructure. The prospect of losing this crucial import channel could further destabilise Ukraine's already precarious energy situation.
This dispute has also created ripples within the European Union. Hungary, sharing Slovakia's reliance on the Druzhba pipeline, had initially expressed strong opposition to the EU military loan package. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had even threatened to veto the initiative, citing the oil supply interruption as a primary concern. A compromise was eventually reached, permitting the loan package to proceed without a Hungarian blockade, with assurances provided to the involved nations regarding protection from potential financial repercussions. However, Fico's latest move suggests that the underlying tensions and the interconnectedness of energy and geopolitical considerations within the EU continue to be powerful forces. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can prevent a further deterioration of relations and a potential energy crisis for Ukraine.