A new scientific study shows a worrying decline in the Earth's natural ability to absorb carbon, happening at the same time as experts change their predictions about global energy use. Research now indicates that Africa's huge tropical forests, which have long been vital for soaking up carbon dioxide, have started releasing more than they take in. Meanwhile, major energy organizations say the world will likely keep using large amounts of oil and gas for many more decades. Together, these two trends create a serious challenge for international climate targets, showing the difficult link between damaged ecosystems and our ongoing reliance on fossil fuels.
The important forest study was led by Professor Heiko Balzter and a team from British universities. By examining satellite data from 2007 to 2017, they found that since around 2010, Africa's forests have become a net source of carbon. This change is due to several human-caused pressures, including clearing land for farming and mining, building roads, and the growing effects of global warming which harms the health of the forests. Areas like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar have been particularly affected. The research estimates that from 2010 to 2017, these forests lost about 106 billion kilograms of plant material each year.
This means that all three of the world's great tropical rainforest areas—the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and now Africa—are adding to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere instead of reducing them. Professor Balzter stressed that international funding to protect these forests needs to increase quickly. These results come as world leaders meet at the COP30 climate summit, highlighting the difference between promises and the actual situation on the ground.
At the same time, the global shift to cleaner energy is progressing slower than hoped. The International Energy Agency (IEA) now says that, under current policies, worldwide demand for oil and gas could keep rising until 2050. This is because overall energy needs are growing every year, and sectors like transport, manufacturing, and the new infrastructure for artificial intelligence continue to require large amounts of power.
The combined effect of these developments is significant. As the planet's natural carbon sinks weaken, the move away from fossil fuels is also slowing down. This double challenge makes the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 much harder to achieve. The world now faces the difficult task of protecting and restoring nature much more effectively, while also managing an energy system that will still rely heavily on oil and gas for a long time.