Delegates are meeting in Belem for COP30. The mood is quiet, unlike past meetings. The promise to stop using fossil fuels quickly is changing. This happened two years ago at COP28. Now, countries are thinking again. Energy security is a big worry. Also, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 seems hard.
The United States left the Paris Agreement before. This affects the current meeting. Some officials seem to slow down the goals. This, and other global changes, mean climate goals are weaker. National energy plans for 2035 show less ambition. They are moving away from quick plans for fewer emissions.
Many things cause this change. Global energy demand is growing. It grows about 2% each year. This is more than the 1.4% from the last decade. So, countries need to use all energy sources. This includes fossil fuels, but managed carefully. This fact influences decisions for governments and companies. Businesses now focus on energy security and cost. They understand that the change must not hurt the economy.
Therefore, the main goal at COP30 will be to keep warming below 2°C. This is a revised but important target. It is more realistic than the 1.5°C goal. The world will likely not meet net-zero targets by mid-century. The focus is shifting. It is moving from just reducing emissions to being practical. This includes real political and economic situations.
The results of this situation are important. Few big steps are expected at COP30. Fewer businesses are attending. The focus is now on making energy systems strong. Without good energy systems, long-term goals are at risk. The time of "reducing emissions no matter what" is over. A slower, more realistic path to less carbon is starting. This path faces the reality of energy needs and the global economy.