The island of Cyprus is getting a clear look at its future climate. It is unusually warm and dry for November, and this is making a serious water shortage even worse. Scientists say the island is on a path of long-term warming and drying that is changing the environment and putting great pressure on its water and infrastructure.
Experts from the Cyprus Institute report that the country is warming very fast, by 0.4 to 0.6°C every ten years since 1981. This means that months like March and November are now about 2°C warmer than they were decades ago. A professor from the institute said this November feels more like September, giving an early taste of the climate expected later this century.
Rain is also changing. There is much less annual rain now than in the mid-1900s, meaning the island loses billions of tonnes of water each year. Also, instead of gentle, widespread rain, Cyprus now often has short, very heavy local storms. This water runs off quickly and does not fill the underground water supplies properly.
Because of this, there is a major water crisis. The water in reservoirs is now only 9.5% full. A water department engineer warned that without good rain, the country's water reserves could run out by 2026. Cyprus now gets about 70% of its city water from desalination plants, but this process uses a lot of energy and is expensive.
For the future, climate models show Cyprus could become as dry as Cairo by 2050, with even less rain. Heatwaves will be more common and last longer, increasing the need for cooling. This is a big change to the island's natural balance, and it requires urgent action.